Episode 25

In this episode we visit with the founder of Glowlit – Guy Soreq to better understand ingredient pricing and how to stay ahead of the markets. Guy explains the whys and hows behind his service and how it is changing the game for both livestock producers and suppliers. Also, we learn a little bit about pork production in Israel.

25: Understanding Ingredient Pricing with Guy Soreq – Founder of Glowlit

Hello there.  This is Dr. Casey Bradley and you’re listening to The Real P3 podcast, a podcast dedicated to the real pork producers around the world. I hope you enjoy.

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Markets are crazy. I don’t know if you feel the same way, but I’ve had a tough time monitoring my investment portfolio on the New York Stock Exchange. Or corn futures for producers on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Things seems to be out of whack. I can’t predict what the future’s gonna be. I hope you hedged your corn earlier this year for 2021. But there’s a lot of information out on the macro-ingredients, such as corn and soybean meal in our diets. A lot of times, we don’t focus on the bottom 20% – the micro-ingredients. Well, there’s a new tool. Guy Soreq has developed Glowlit that will help you make the key business decisions you need from buying or not buying some of these ingredients. So, stay tuned to learn more.

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[01:06]

Casey: Well, hello, Guy. How are you today?

Guy: I’m well. Thank you for asking.

C: Would you mind introducing yourself to the audience and telling us a little bit about your company Glowlit?

G: For sure. So, first thank you for having me here. Glowlit is a tool that I wish I had when I was a trader of abnormal feed additives and amino acids. And I came up with the idea pretty much when I joined the business that I worked in and had to salvage some of the accounts that were just taken away from us because we had no idea that prices were slipping beneath our feet. And the idea behind Glowlit is that, if you’re a big company, you can always pay for market intelligence. But if you’re a small integrator, if you’re a small producer, if you’re a small distributor, you can’t afford paying for market intelligence. But you have the best data in the world. You know exactly how much you just sold, how full truck for a customer. So, all we’re trying to do is allow a platform where anyone that has information can get information in return for the small input from their own perspective. And this is really what Glowlit is. It’s a platform where you can come in at any moment in time, 24/7, enter a single price point for a product and in return for that price point, for free, you’ve got a full time, real-time updated report on what are the prices for this product locally. And we do that by implementing two types of verification – an algorithm that verifies the price entries and the verification team that works for Glowlit that works in two ways to really ensure that the information presented on Glowlit, on 92 countries in real time, is accurate and updated while maintaining complete anonymity on all the users.

C: So, it’s a pricing tool and you can… What I love about it – when you explained it to me when you first started, I think what about a year ago when we met – I love the idea that you can’t kinda lie about the price, cause your equation will kinda tell us if we’re wrong, right?

G: I get a lot of questions about the honesty factor in Glowlit. And really, [03:30] the idea here is that, at the core, people in our industry are good people. They wanna share accurate, honest information, but…

C: They’re human?

G: …we were trained to come into a negotiation by saying, “I can’t tell you what I really see. I can’t tell you the truth, because I’ll be disadvantaged.” And this is what Glowlit is trying to change. We’re trying to add more trustworthiness to a very trustworthy industry. If you come in to Glowlit and you try to lie – which a lot of users come in for the first time and say, “I can’t share what I actually see. I need to try and fib the system.” The algorithm does what we call “slapping the hand” because it’s for free. You’re anonymous. No repercussions happen if you tell the truth. So why don’t tell the truth? And not more than that, if you try to fib the system for three times you’re blocked, so users realize that there’s no repercussions, it’s completely free, and if you keep lying, you’re not able to use the tool, and you know what happens? You just tell the truth. When you have thousands of people from the industry come in and tell the truth, that just reiterates and reaffirms the honesty factor, which prevents more people from lying. So, we’re bringing our industry to where, people used to work with people that they trust, and they would tell the truth to the supplier, they would tell the truth to the buyer.

C: So, for the pork producers… From my standpoint as a nutritionist, a lot of times when I work… I’ve worked across the gamut, right? I’ve worked in the integrated system. I’ve worked for a feed producer. And I’ve worked for feed additive companies, and what I’ve noticed a lot with the producers trying to make decisions on… I get a lot, well, why do I wanna switch? My nutrition program’s doin’ really well, right? And they just assume that, you know, we’re relationship buyers and stuff, but nobody ever questions pricing… really, right? They may change something for a penny or a dime or make you mad, but a lot of times, when we look at ingredients in our diets, we just assume that it’s ok. And then you go to the integrators and working with/at AB Vista and DSM and Purina, even, selling a phytase, if I was a penny off and they were price buyers, [06:00] even though they loved ya, you were gone, right? And I still, a lot of producers not really focusing on little things that they can make money on. And to me, little things grow into snowballs.  Kinda… in your mind… everybody’s talkin’ ‘bout big commodities; you’re workin’ a little bit on commodities, but talk about how producers can make better buying decisions, and to me it’s better business, so… What’s your thoughts on some of that?

G: That’s a great question. First, let’s talk back on the producers. The reason why Glowlit exists and why it’s not one side or the other – it’s not that we’re pro-buyers and against producers, or vice versa. When I worked as a consultant in McKenzie, I realized when I worked for the big producers that they have no idea what the price is. They think that when they call in a price, that will be sustained throughout the supply chain. But then, a trader buys it, and another trader buys it from there, and another trader buys it from there. And in one deal, they lost complete attachment to the actual market price. So, everyone in the supply chain can benefit from a little bit of honesty coming into Glowlit. And what you mentioned on integrators and farmers, looking at the 80%, for sure if you’re not buying corn at the right price, you’re in deep trouble. And definitely anyone that made bets that came to be true buying corn in August 2020 for a full year contract, made a lot of money. Anyone that didn’t is now struggling. But that’s the question on the 80%. If we were working in profit margins that allow us to only look at the 80%, that’s great. But I talk to a lot of farmers [08:00] that their profit margins are very slim. They’re below the double-digit, they’re single-digit profit margins. If they’re happy with 1-2-3-4% profit, and then the question is how can you optimize that. How can you move from 2% profit margin to a 2.5%? And you can do that by looking at – not the biggest commodities that you’re buying, but – the semi-commodities. The products that are, although are representing a small part of your purchasing, but they’re so volatile that you can buy something that changes from this month to the next by around 20-30%. By only doing that, and by only knowing what are the key challenges and the fundamental decisions that change these prices, then you can make the right purchasing decisions. And up until now, the only people that made those decisions were the big companies. If you are large enough to employ a consulting company to make your decisions for you, that’s great. Farmers that manage even thousands of pigs are not managing to employ a consulting company. So Glowlit, if I go back to why we started it, was started in order to make this information accessible for anyone. There’s 89% of the companies in the US right now that are just not able to employ a McKenzie in their profit. I’m sure that the people that listen to us now didn’t even consider to hire BCG as a consulting company to their farm. But they can right now go on Glowlit for free, anonymously, enter what they just paid for Vitamin E50, any by-product, maybe bone meal, anything that is included in the ration, represent around 80% of your [10:00] cost and make sure they are paying the right price – the fair price – compared to the rest of the market around them. By doing that, they manage their costs, and they make sure that they are going to be around for a longer term as opposed to getting beat by the competition.

C: You know, you just spoke my language. Because you know, they can’t afford to hire me, and I sit there and I do the math and I know where I can make money for producers, and I’m like why can you not afford to hire me? And that’s, I think, I’d say even the mindset, right? Like you said, we always focus on the 80%. And if you listen to a lot of farmers, I learn more about commodities and hedging from talking to farmers than I did in college. Right? And then I go work for a feed company and I’m sittin’ there havin’ to create buying matrices of amino acids to soybean meal and things like that. And so, it’s not something they teach you in school, by the way, but you just said if I can move my profit from 2 to 2.5%, that’s like 20-25% improvement, right?

G: Exactly.

C: That’s a lot of money in today’s market! So, when we look at these prices, I’ve worked selling and buying on quarterly basis, annual basis; are people making mistakes buying these 20% ingredients, like your enzymes or feed additives, your vitamins, quarterly or annually? Are you able to hedge it and be like…Can you foresee that future like we do with corn and things? Or, I mean what are your thoughts on that?

G: First of all, that’s a great question. I think that quarterly-annually is something that is reserved for companies that either have so much cash on hand that they can allocate that, or companies in very unique industries where profit margins are very high. In the industries that I work with – with farmers – [12:00] I don’t hear anymore annual. I don’t hear 6 months even. But I do hear quarterly and definitely month-per-month. And it’s because the changes are so radical. When you look at Vitamin C, we have users coming on Glowlit, entering prices that they got on November 2020. They want to buy again, and they are trying to understand whether the price that they bought then is relevant. Well, in November 2020, price for Vitamin C was $3. Today if you’re getting anything at $10, you’re lucky. There’s upwards for a full container that goes at around $8/kilo, but that’s almost 3 times what they had then. And if you’re a nutritionist, if you’re a consultant, and you don’t have that information – which brings me to what you just mentioned – consultants and nutritionists are also coming into Glowlit. They’re taking the information from their customers, putting that information on Glowlit to get a full view of the current price on their ration. And the reason why it’s so easy to talk about hedging and corn and soy  -and heck, why not even coffee and sugar – is because it’s accessible. Googling immediately the price of soy right now, you can see it’s in the teens, and you can talk until tomorrow about how things were different a year ago, 10 years ago, etc. It’s much harder to find that information on amino acids, on enzymes, on vitamins. Well, it’s harder because companies like Glowlit were not in existence. Glowlit is trying to change that. And you can talk about hedging. You can talk about making decisions on whether I’m buying 3 months in advance or just for the next 2 weeks, based on the information that you have available on Glowlit. Because then you are able [14:00] to look and see whether: if you made the decision 3 months ago, maybe you would be running at the 2.5% profit, or if Vitamin E50 is a significant cost structure, maybe even move to 4%, just by making a decision to buy two containers instead of one.

C: Yeah, that’s the biggest question, especially in this year, I think, I’ve gone from – “I can’t find vitamins, Casey, can you call somebody and find it?” Like callin’ everybody to find a load of A or E, and then also methionine. I’m out of allocation. I just needed 2 bags, and that was a nightmare, to run a trial to find 2 bags of methionine. How does using your system – I mean you just said, maybe I should buy now based on that historical – are you predicting any of that or giving insights beyond just pricing to buy 1 or 2 loads, based on some of the shortages or seen issues?

G: So, we have a neat feature on Glowlit, and I’ll start by saying, the algorithm on Glowlit is very limited on what it does. We’re only making sure the users are honest with the algorithm. The rest is not coming from any calculations. We don’t have smart math geeks that are doing incredible things behind the scenes. Everything on Glowlit comes from the community. It comes from people like you, me, the farmer that listens to us, the producer of Vitamin E50 in China. People that come together, to bring information together, and then by doing analysis on that, we alert the community to make decisions right now. And you mentioned vitamins. We – two weeks ago – had an unique activity alert on Glowlit. What is a unique activity alert? We send an alert to anyone that look at Vitamin E50 on our site [16:00] to make sure that they now pick up the phone and talk to their supplier. Maybe something happened on the E50 arena that they need to understand. Now, we don’t know what triggered it at the moment. All we know is that more users come in and check what is the price of E50 right now and we saw that the algorithm sent a unique activity alert. A lot of people came in and definitely prices started climbing up. As I talked to several of the pro users that we have, I understood that what happened was that DSM has a joint venture with a company called Nectar in China. Their line of producing E50 broke! So being in one of the largest producers of E50 around the world, just one line breaking in China means that everyone are on alert. In the past, the only people that hurt from it were the big guys because that’s when you pick up the phone and you call Cargill, Provimi, anyone that has a big enough account with you, to say you should buy now at the old price, because we’re gonna increase it. Well, what happens in Glowlit is that suddenly, not only the big guys get the notification, but anyone that helps the system grow. So, we saw users from any part around the world: Columbia, Malaysia, we have 92 countries active on Glowlit, coming in every week to enter prices and to compare their benchmark on their quote. And all of these guys got the notification to pick up the phone, talk to their supplier, understand where they are. Maybe they have enough. Maybe they don’t. They need to put in an order right now, because otherwise, their line is broken, they don’t have product to sell.

C: Now, I love this. I think this is a great tool. I’ve been a supporter of it since we met the first time and I heard about it. And the reason is because a lot of times as producers, we put out fires. [18:00] I’m out of feed here. I put the wrong feed in this bin.  And we think about vitamins, even on the integrated level, maybe once or twice a year when I’m puttin’ my specs together. And I had a question from a producer a couple weeks ago – I don’t know if you’re aware, but Iowa, Minnesota, PRRS144 has been on fire, and NPD. So, a lot of people I’ve been working with were suffering bad. They were short pigs, lost a lot of pigs, were still struggling. I heard of a recent PRRS break in Minnesota this week. We should be out of PRRS season. And I had a question from a producer on vitamins, for instance. And some of the levels went down. I know when Vitamin A and E went up. We all will go into our formulas, and we crank it down, right? We take that overage with that safety margin out. And he asked me “Is PRRS sticking around more this year than last year potentially because our vitamins are not where we thought they were or they’re not as high as they were?” Because I remember having this debate, I don’t know, on and off when vitamins spike. “Can we get by with less A, Casey? Can we get by with less E?” And so, I think, even as a nutritionist, listening and following your system and getting those alerts are important to say, “You know I’m going into summer, I’m gonna have probably higher health pigs. My vitamin E prices look like they’re going up. Do I make that spec change downward?” Or vice versa… “I’m coming into winter, I’m gonna have PRRS again, I need more Vitamin A, D, A for my immune system. Do I buy now for the future, right?” And I think that’s because we all work in silos. You know, I talk to the money people. I talk to the producers. I talk to the nutritionists. The feed mill managers, we’re all in silos and we never come together and work on solutions to help. With your program, I mean, what… Do you have any examples of [20:00] producers making more profits by being a pro-user of Glowlit? Do you have any testimonials or anything like that, examples?

G: So, I’ll take it up and it’s fascinating that you have the conversations. And I can tell you that producers live off this type of information. They try to understand, because if we go back to our days of trying to understand economy and economics, it’s all about supply and demand. Producers, they know supply. They know exactly what’s their capacity. They know when they’re going on to maintenance. They know supply through and through. They probably know supply of their competitors, too, and they’re trying to always understand whether there’s enough supply and not enough supply. What they don’t know is demand. And they have no idea about demand, not because they didn’t try to understand it. Not because they don’t talk to Cargill or Provimi every day of the week to understand what’s demand there. They have no idea about demand because it’s so fragmented. There’s a limit to how much you can talk to the farmers themselves, to understand exactly what you mentioned, and whether demand now is at a peak, whether there’s going to be more demand coming up. Whether right now the amount of demand coming from small farms is enough to balance out the amount of supply, or do we need to try and find another avenue to throw away some of these products that we have in stock.  Now, this is what Glowlit comes to do. Not going into the profit margins of big companies in the billions, because they definitely don’t normally care about Glowlit, but they do care about not having too much inventory and getting rid of it when they have too much stock. This is what Glowlit comes to do. It comes to give you the basic economy equation [22:00] of its supply and demand. Up until now they have no idea how much customers really want to buy in the coming months. Because we ask more than 2 people – we ask thousands of people every week what actually their demand is, that’s part of the equation that is starting to be solved. Different countries have more answers. Different areas around the world. Different products have more answers on that. But little by little, as we see more of the pro customers – Glowlit Pro essentially gives you access to the entire world, and it’s a subscription model. That’s how we make our money. A lot of people ask us if everything is free. It’s not. If you’re a small farmer, all you need to know is how much your competitors around you buy and what they sell at. If you’re a big multi-national producer, you want demand. You want demand and that’s what Glowlit comes to help you to understand where you need to send your stock and how much you need to sell and buy.

[23:03]

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We wanna take this break to thank our sponsors, The Sunswine Group, NutraSign, Swine Nutrition Management and Pig Progress.  But we also wanted to remind you of our new Facebook group, the Global Swine Professionals.  We’re gonna be doing something fun; some live interviews, some Q&A and we just wanna hear from our audience, so that’s a great place for you to take the time, leave us a comment, tell us what you wanna hear, or volunteer to be on our show, because we’re always looking for those awesome pork producers around the world.  Well, that’s all I had, so let’s get back to that episode now.

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[23:43]

C: Well, I think I’ve talked enough about economics to kinda get a headache. Let’s switch gears. You’re from Israel. Tell us about pork production in Israel. Because I didn’t think there was a lot of pigs, but according to you, there’s some pigs there that I could go visit. [laughter]

G: So, Israel was a lot on the news recently, but let’s try and talk about other parts of the Israeli population. You can really talk about Jews and Muslims in Israel, but that’s only part of the story. We have quite a bit of Christians there, and like other places around the world, Christians love pork. So, we have production of pork. The real difference in the way that these pigs they are produced is that once a year, for any people that listen in and know a little about the Passover kosher laws, these pigs do not eat unkosher food. So, in a way, Israel is the only producer of kosher pigs around the world, because they are mandated to eat kosher feed. Now, it’s not about actual mandates by any rabbis, but just pure economics. It doesn’t make sense if you make your feed for the dairy, for the poultry layers and broilers, then you are going to also make in the same facility the feed for the pigs with the same premix. So, the pigs are very much enjoying their kosher feed, and that’s my experience of working with the pork industry in Israel.

C: Well, I was gonna say, I also heard from a student who went to Israel, I think, and got to see this and learn a little bit about pork production in Israel, that there are kosher raised pigs to where, if I understood right from the story, that they never touch the ground.

G: That’s actually a way to convince the Muslim imams and the Jewish rabbis that the industry of producing pigs in Israel is working with them. But at the end, if you are going to the IPP, if you’re going to Euro-tier, these ways of raising pigs on platforms is quite common around the world.

C: I did it all of my life, right? [laughter]

G: So, by telling these stories to the [26:00] guys that want to know that they’re being taken into account, etc., you’re just able to implement very technologically advanced ways of raising pigs on platforms, and you can tell them that this is because they don’t touch the ground and de, de, de. But then, pigs in Israel are using the same very advanced technology around the world that are maintained in other parts of the world.

C: Well, that’s pretty awesome. So, it’s on my bucket list, and hopefully I’m gonna go to a pig farm in Israel, so if you know anybody, get me an invitation. Because that’s my goal is to see pigs on every continent, and country, area, region in the world. So, I got a few more stops I need to make yet.

G: It would be my pleasure to host you.

C: We’ve had some other conversations. Do you have any kind of questions for me, you know, from my point of view?

G: We’ve been talking for even more than a year now, and in every part of the world we’re trying to understand – what I mentioned before – you know, the demand. And really the first place to start demand is who’s buying the most. What I see from the changes in ASF is that a certain country – we can call it China – is changing fundamentally the way that pigs are grown in the country. And it means that any family, any small farm with 100 sows, even a thousand sows, is no longer profitable. They lost all their pigs and they never can get it back, especially with the regulations that are coming in. Which means that what we see in China, and what definitely the state television is telling us in China, is that sow herd is back to normal, pre-ASF levels, 23% increase in one year; everything is back to normal. BUT – I can only imagine that they’re not in the small farms, but they’re then [28:00] in these huge facilities that if before they just ate the garbage that the local family gave them, now they’re buying soy, they’re buying corn, byproducts, premixes. What do you see as the change in that big demand area and what does that mean to local buyers and local producers in the US when they think on the future of their rations?

C: Yeah, and we can throw other countries in. You know, ASF has impacted pork and commodities, I think, this year, not only just Covid, but we can say ASF in the last couple years, has impacted those types of buying patterns and things. Take the Philippines. The Philippines is in the same boat. They can’t get over ASF – working with a company over there trying to integrate or make a cooperative out of pork producers to make larger, right, more bulk loads, more able to fit the demand of the ideal pig.  So, it’s not just in China. You know, obviously, working with Dr. Johnson over there and having my friend there as a veterinarian and diagnostic, I get to hear a little bit of different story than what the state’s telling us. Obviously, I have not been boots on the ground, because I can’t come in because of Covid, right? But, you know, from what I understand is if these larger integrators are gettin’ bigger, as you said, right. So, when we think about what integration has done to the poultry industry and to the swine industry in the US, that changes how we sell, it’s how we buy, and it changes demand. But they may have increased their sow herd by 20%, but what I understand, we’re finally getting shipments in multiplication. We see stories on that. We’re getting pigs, you know, the good multiplication sows, the good genetics back in there. But as they were rebuilding this last year, they’re puttin’ anything they could in sow farms. Like terminal gilts, right? And so, the problem with that, according to Dr. Johnson is [30:00] that it brought other diseases that we didn’t have in our sow farms. So pseudo-rabies came back. Other diseases that are more traditionally finisher pig-based; bring that back in. And then when we look at, we’re gonna breed anything that can walk, right? That mindset, even here in the US, sometimes when we’re short because of different things – and we talk about gilt selection rate – if we breed anything that walks, that just creates a snowball effect of disastrous proportions, right?  So, our replacement rates were gonna be higher. I don’t know what they are today, but I do know the big guys are getting bigger. It is more integrated. We can say that’s in China. We can say that in Southeast Asia, Philippines, that more pigs are being controlled by fewer people. From a nutrition standpoint, from a management standpoint, I’m curious to see long-term what these mega-sow-farms are building. The multi-stories: I think that’s ingenious from a land management standpoint, but disastrous if a disease hits, right?

G: Uh-huh.

C: So, I mean that’s an advantage. If I’ve got 2500 sows at one site and they get sick, I lost 2500 sows. Now imagine that I’ve got 10,000 sows and I get ASF, I’m out 10,000 sows. So, even if their sow herd is back, I don’t know if they are going to be as productive as they were pre-ASF, is my question, right? But what I do know is that the integrated side, they’re gonna be more efficient. They’re gonna be better. But there’s a lot of things they’ve gotta work through. You asked me that question a couple weeks ago, and lookin’ at corn and stuff, and I’m like, “Mmm… Yeah, they really aren’t buying a lot of corn. It doesn’t really look like they’ve got that 20% extra growth,” right? And then this week I see some good reports of them buyin’ some corn.

G: True.

C: And ya know, everybody wants to learn what’s goin’ on in China, and [32:00] I think we don’t think worldly and I don’t like to get in politics. Everyone’s my friend that likes pigs. And then other people I may consider you my friend if you don’t like pigs, but you know. [laughter] But I think a lot of things I’ve heard this year, you have to know what’s going on in demand. Like our competition’s not our neighbor next door anymore. It’s China! Or… are they our competition, but when we look at US Pork exports and we always talk about exports, exports, right? And China is our main driver that we wanna, you know, sell pork to, and we were hurtin’ during Covid because of that, and some of that, so in different decisions in politics and the last presidency and things. But I think, you know what I’ve heard, there is integrated systems from China moving to Africa. They’re moving to all the continents. They realize that they’re not going to be able to produce pork on their continent like they used to be able to. ASF regulations that you talked about.

G: Of course.

C: So now they’re going – we already knew this, but – they’re going into these third world countries. Well, they own one of our largest producers here in the US. Well, that pork is export type pork. And so that’s what we have to be aware of is that this expansion may be coming for the Chinese market, but it may not be on mainland China.

G: Fascinating.

C: So, you throw that dynamic in, right, if you hear, “We’re moving to Africa.” And we already have grain source issues and producers havin’ issues buying commodities there, and they pay a large premium on corn and soy on that continent talking to different producers because they can’t grow enough, right? They don’t have the infrastructure to probably grow as much crops, so if you think of that mindset, it’s gonna be important to know that global supply that you talked about. It’s not just the small regional basis anymore of buyin’ or sellin’ corn or hedging it out even a year or even [34:00] looking at vitamins. Who’s gonna get the vitamins first that’s produced in China? China’s gonna get it.

G: Of course.

C:  We’re gonna pay the premium.

G: As we did with amino acids; just to look in finalizing, trimming, I think at the end, any person, no matter the size, needs to look up and down their supply chain. Who’s your customer? Who’s your supplier? And then who’s your customer’s customer? Who’s your supplier’s supplier? By understanding more into that supply chain, you’ll be able to be one step ahead of the game. Now, it’s not about predictive analysis. It’s not about employing hedging or anything. Just face-to-face discussion. “Hey! How are you doing? What’s the main thing on your mind today? Is it ASF? Is it your children’s graduation?” If it’s your children’s graduation, that’s great! If it’s ASF, I wanna know about it.

C: Yeah. And I think that’s kinda the whole vision of The Real P3 is we’re only as good as the last producer we talk to. Our information is only as viable or legit or as good as the last producer that we learned somethin’ from. And we take that knowledge, and we share it. That’s what my partners talked about about The Real P3. But yet, Covid or not, I won’t even talk about politics and even country borders and continents that we don’t think it’s… we want to bring everybody together. Because I don’t see the Chinese pork producer as a competitor to the US pork producer. I see us as allies, right? And if we can create an environment, we can all learn from each other and we can all thrive, that’s great. Another interesting thing for you, and thinkin about even not China, but I get a lot of questions because I’m workin’ with some equipment suppliers, there’s nobody expanding. There’s a lot of remodels; a lot of discussion around [36:00] Prop 12 and remodeling our sows. There’s no expansion. So, crystal ball of what the pork industry is gonna be like. Maybe China can scale up. Will they take that back? Will we have a hole here in the US? But normally I see… market prices today, you’re putting down another 100,000 sows. Somebody is, right? And it’s that roller coaster supply and demand and we never get that right, but this year nobody’s puttin’ pigs down and we’re short because of disease. It’ll be interesting to see what does really happen in that global pork. And I’m not an expert, so some people probably listen and are like, “Casey, you’re out of touch.” But I find the different components interesting in how I make decisions and it goes into pricing, right? Nobody’s probably expanding because they can’t afford to build a barn. They can’t get the loan because it doesn’t pay in 10 years now with the lumber cost or steel cost.

G: Of course.

C: …is the major part of it probably. So, I heard a lot of people are getting things fixed that they never did, but… no new sows goin’ down too much that I know of. I mean, I know a few people had a few plans already in the works, but not as much growth as I anticipated for 2021.

G: This is exactly what I think needs to be a priority in every person’s day. Pick up the phone, talk to someone like you, Casey, and ask, what do you see around you? And if you don’t hear anyone putting sow on ground, that’s when you should. Cause with demand, with inflation, with increase of costs of food, people that will have supply in the future will be in the money. People that take the risks now and make sure that they are proactive on looking at every part of the supply chain will make the right decisions. Those that just [38:00] wait to see what will happen will be left behind.

C: Exactly. Same mindset. I’m tired of puttin’ out the fires, and it’s time that we be proactive or we’re not gonna exist in 10 years.

G: I’m with ya.

C: And I hope we all, pork producers around the world, thrive. So… and poultry and dairy. I like all animals.

G: Let’s start with pigs though.

C: Yeah, let’s start with pigs. [laughter] Well, I appreciate it. Great conversations. Great insights. And yes, I do recommend, as a consultant, as a person, Glowlit as a tool. We need tools to make the right decisions, and I don’t care if you have 500 sows or you have 500,000 sows, your profit margins… You need to be looking at every component of your costs. Not just the 80%. So, Guy has the tool. You need help looking at that kind of stuff, or how you buy, or make your own decisions of how you can buy your vitamins differently? Well, you know who to call, so… call me. But, you know, we can help. Tools can help.

G: All you need to do is log in to Glowlit. It’s free of charge. Sign up and then if you need anything, I’m always be here to help.

C: And that is http://www.glowlit.com . So, G-L-O-W-L-I-T.com, correct?

G: Correct.

C: Alright, well, thank you. Have a great day.

G: Bye, Casey.

[39:30]

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Before we go, we wanna thank our sponsors again.  Swine Nutrition Management, NutraSign, Pig Progress and The Sunswine Group.  Don’t forget to join our Facebook the Global Swine Professionals.  And as always, if you get a chance, hug a pig for me today.

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